Decision Making
What is Decision Making?
We all make decisions every day. Understanding how we make decisions is the key to making better ones. Those in senior roles will regularly have to make decisions that may have significant financial, reputational, or safety implications.
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Many of these decisions can be flawed, unless we clearly understand the process of decision making, account for potential risk and choose the best solution to fit that specific scenario
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While decision-making is highly complex, there are three main types of decisions: rule-based, naturalistic and analytical.
Rule-based decisions defined
These types of decisions are when other people have used their expertise to develop a protocol, procedure or rule. For example, in the world of medicine, the “Sepsis Six” is estimated to have reduced mortality rates from sepsis by 50%. [12]​
Why use rule-based decisions? They distil expert knowledge and are easy to apply – even in stressful situations when the team is grappling with a high workload.
Summarising analytical decisions
This form of decision making comes from analysing significant volumes of data and devising a new solution to complex, unusual problems.
We can be highly proficient at this, especially when developing new therapies, scientific advances or products.
Analytical decisions sit well with innovation and creativity, as well as complex analysis. However, they tend to be time-consuming and cognitively demanding.
Spotlight on naturalistic decisions
Also known as recognition-primed, expert or pattern-matching, naturalistic decisions are based on expertise, acquired skill and experience.
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This is when the brain has seen a situation or something similar before. It will rapidly generate a solution which can sometimes feel automatic
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Indeed, the vast majority of our daily decisions are made in this way, often with little conscious thought. (For example, you may not remember your drive to work, but on the way, you’ll have made many decisions without thinking about it)
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Experts can be very good at these types of decisions
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However, they can also unknowingly make incorrect decisions and be less likely to accept evidence they have made an error
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This can be due to having a lot of experience in an area, which can sometimes blind us to alternatives because of our investment in previous decisions and outcomes. [13]
Benefits of Decision-Making training for your sector
By having a clearer understanding of how we make decisions, individually and collaboratively, we are much more likely to choose a lower-risk, more successful outcome.
Real-world example of poor Decision Making
Financial Services
Royal Bank of Scotland’s purchase of ABN Amro, 2007
Background
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During the 2007 global credit crunch, RBS decided to complete its debt-financed acquisition of ABN Amro
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Its highly experienced RBS board were led by a strong personality
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They disregarded a barrage of negative risk signals to press on with a risky deal
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The leadership team had prior involvement in a successful, hostile NatWest takeover – many of those pre-deal risks had proved overblown or baseless
Real-world example of beneficial Decision Making
Aviation
Airbus 320-214, US Airways flight 1549, Hudson River
Background
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On 15 January 2009, a US Airways flight 1549 encountered a flock of Canada geese at low altitude, eight-and-a-half miles from La Guardia airport, New York
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Seven of these large birds were ingested into both engines
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This resulted in a complete and catastrophic loss of thrust in both engines
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On board were 150 passengers, including one lap-held child, and five crew.
Applying Decision Making in your teams
On our Sapien Human Factors Consulting courses we’ll show you how to:
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Understand how our brains make decisions and whether they’re conscious or unconscious
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Evaluate how experts make decisions and why they’re at risk from decision-making pitfalls
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Choose the best solution, rather than opt for the first workable option
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Approach analytical decisions using structure and cognition, recognising risk and other options
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Improve decision-making under pressure using appropriate methods
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Learn strategies to mitigate stress on cognition and avoid flawed decision making
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Become aware of distractions and their impact on cognitive processes
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Balance the benefits of “flow state” with the dangers of omissions while working hard
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Communicate decisions unambiguously and clearly and recognise what can prevent this
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Develop a “what if” mindset for the unexpected and prepare contingency strategies.
